Re-Talibanized Afghanistan: Final Moves, How It happened

 The wheels for the Taliban to roll in were greased by the US administration in Doha meet in August 2021, including the promise of transition and establishing a government that would take care of Human-Rights, civil liberties and the constitution adopted by the Afghans.

It is widely known that the ISI did not subscribe to the idea of the Taliban sharing their power in a coalition government. But they asked the Taliban who were stationed in their Pakistan hideouts to play along so that the sole objective of the ISI (Pakistani Government) and the fanatic Taliban is addressed with the help of their granddad sitting in the north. 

At this point, it would be important to understand that the old guard is also known as the Northern Alliance, Amrullah Saleh, Ata Muhammad Noor and Abdu Rashid Dosti were very strategically sidelined by Mr Ghani on the directions of Zalmay Khalilzad (former United States Ambassador to the United Nation and also Afghan American diplomat, he served as a representative for Afghanistan reconciliation at the state department since September 2018).

 The cracks in the Afghan government were clearly visible in the public posturing and the stand taken at various locations with regards to the old guard, which smelt smoke from the outset of this new arrangement- being conceived, conceptualized, and marketed by those who are interested in bringing changes that are desired and favoured them the most.

 In the early stages, as the fight started to erupt in Herat, Faryab, ANA and ANDSF fought back fearlessly and were able to reverse initial losses that it suffered at the hands of the Taliban fighters.

 But this time it is also said that a message from the Presidential Palace had been sent over to the ANA and ANDSF forces to stand down, as power-sharing agreements were being worked out. Presumably, a plan B was being formulated. Thus, crippling the hands of ANA /ANDSF forces which had gained initial Upper Hand in curtailing and pushing back the Taliban Militants.

Taliban being Taliban- true to its nature and having been trained by the Fox, under whose refuge they had sustained themselves for the last 20 years- used the ceasefire to encircle ANA /ANDSF units. They executed many surrendered troops which   impacted the moral of ANA /ANDSF forces greatly, as they felt betrayed by the Presidential Palace.

 

This situation resulted in total lack of Unity at the command level, also, the sustained info-war by the ISI made sure that the troops started to desert in large numbers. Information which came to me also point out that the Americans did not provide close air support and delayed overall of key aviation assets which were critical for re-supplies to reach loyal troops of ANA /ANDSF, still in action. Questions are being raised by experts understanding as to why such delays could happen under the well-oiled war machinery of the United States and its intelligence apparatus.

This doubt over the intelligence apparatus as well as the US think tank is also fortified by the very fact that the decisions taken in Qatar and Washington, were not communicated to CENTCOM, in full. It is said, that, this is the primary reason why the US troops in Afghanistan did not get enough time to deploy demolition teams to destroy sensitive war fighting equipment and also to make sure that at no point in time their assets could be misused by any other, in case of such eventuality. A second school of thought says, that this was deliberately done because any such step would have led to widespread panic amongst the Afghan forces who are battling the Taliban across the widely spread fronts in the north and the north-east.

 Taliban did not trust the Americans from the onset and made a lightning dash to Kabul. This was classic hug your opponent move which showed that it had a good chunk of foreign citizens and troops and circled in Kabul. This turned out to be a great bargaining chip, ensuring that the Americans do not bomb their positions in north and north-west, making it convenient for Taliban to consolidate their hold.

This move of the Taliban truly surprised the Americans as well as President Ghani, who was eagerly looking at power sharing agreement with the Taliban along with Abdulla Abdulla and Chief negotiator former President Hamid Karzai. This quick chain of events that were not envisaged by the then President Ghani made his well-wishers convince him to make a quick exit. Though, the rumours are that he allegedly went off with a lot of money (which is presumed critical in buying asylum). As per reliable information, he and few others had taken a Russian flight out of Kabul.

Amarullah Saleh had Plan B in place by the end of June 2021. However, Taliban spoiled his plans by taking Mazar-i-sharif, Herat and Kunduz , in quick succession that resulted in cutting of all gateways for the Northern Alliance. His retreat to Panjshir hard landed him in a precarious situation as he does not have the strategic depth to fall back upon. In this situation, it would be hard for him and he may, eventually have to abandon, if he does not manage quick territorial wins to enable a land bridge to Tajikistan. 

ANA /ANDSF forces and fighters loyal to him have not been able to make way to Panjshir, in the numbers that could prove critical for him to overpower situation into his advantage. His supply lines are non-existent and his allies look on helplessly as supplying by air is a very risky affair, though, not impossible. 

The fact is that the Taliban 2.0 has the coaching of ISI to project itself as more human. Ironically, news agencies like Washington Post and New York Times seem to be lapping up and are displaying their ‘New Found Love’ for Taliban 2.0, is also one reason why Afghan and intellectuals with Afghan political affairs knowledge look at all the moves made by USA with a dash of suspicion.

Not forgetting, that the Chinese will keep their card close to their chest until the last American soldier leaves Afghanistan. The Chinese will not waste equipment or human asset until the situation is well known to them. They will be more than happy to pay heavy price to get their hands on the sophisticated American hardware, which, of course, we understand why is of utmost importance for China. Thinking about this a very pertinent question comes around- would China ever be competent to get hands on strategic sophisticated defence hardware of the Americans had this situation not unfolded like this?

It is said history always repeats itself. Ironically, this isn't the first time that the Americans have left behind military hardware. The value of equipment left behind during the fall of Saigon was roughly estimated to be 1 billion dollars in 1975.

It is believed that between 2002 and 2018 the US gave Pakistan, alone, more than 33 billion dollars in assistance, including 14.6 billion to the Pakistani military. During that time, Pakistan ensured the failure of America's Afghanistan project by sheltering, training and cocooning the Taliban forces.

 It is a matter of fact, that in early 2009, when Afghan President Hamid Karzai had spoken to the then vice-president elect of the United States and the current President United States, Joe Biden, to crackdown on Taliban safe-haven across the border, he, reportedly refused him by pointing out that Pakistan is many times more important than Afghanistan for United States. Today as the President and the man making the move, he may have made Pakistan much more dangerous to US and to the world community.

I remember the former director of ISI, Hamid Gul, had once on a television interview said- when history is written it will be stated that the ISI defeated the Soviet Union and Afghanistan with the help of Americans. Gul further went on to say, after a pause, then there will be another sentence the ISI with the help of America defeat America.

In 2011, Julian Assange, of Wikileaks, famously said- For western powers, the goal is to have an endless war, not a successful war. Ten years down the line, his words are ringing true!